Markets shrugged off an early Thursday sell-off and charged ahead once again leaving the bears scratching their heads. The late week sell-off and ensuing recovery may have been exaggerated by Fridays monthly options expiry, but the bottom line is that the confirmed uptrend in the market remains in place. In last weeks review we highlighted the Nasdaq Composite pointing out four reactions the index incurred shortly after making new highs going back to March, and speculated whether a fifth one was in the offing. Well we didn’t have to wait long to find out that the answer to that was, yes. We wouldn’t be surprised to see somewhat of an options expiry hangover early hit the markets next week.
As for our portfolio, it held up well in the wake of the brief volatility by finishing up over 3.5% for the week aided by a huge jump in CAI after they released earnings Thursday evening. We were caught a bit off guard as we were not expecting earnings until next week, however, we were able to capitalize on some after hours trading to sell the first half of our shares .50 over our swing target of $32.50. If we would have held overnight we would have been rewarded, but we don’t normally gamble on earnings reactions with full positions and we tried to stay consistent with that philosophy by taking advantage the opportunity presented to us in post market trading. With that, let’s go to the charts.
SPY- The S&P 500 finished just under 1% higher for the week and notched another new all-time closing high in the process. The index now sits over 2.5% above its 50 day EMA and with the advance accelerating we are still bullish, but very conscious that another pullback is possible. That said, since we honor our stops and our process and are generally selective with our purchases, its still business as usual here at TTP. The chart below will show the accelerated advance as well as a promising distribution picture, as we currently have only one day in the current 20 session count.
NASDAQ- We left last weeks notations in our Nasdaq Comp chart to give you another picture as to what we have been eluding to the last two weeks in regards to the index. It did finish in record high territory along with the S&P and Dow, but the advance doesn’t have quite the accelerative look to it as the other two indices. Going in to next week, the index sits with only two distribution days in the current count.
IWM- The Russell 2000 gapped up Friday out of the midst of a 12 day consolidation after its big run up over the last two months, but fell shy of making new highs. The index settled for a gain of 0.61% for the week and still sports a healthy look as it currently shows only two distribution days over the last month of trading. The late September breakout of a long nine month consolidation is still intact.
QQQ- The action in the Nasdaq 100 mirrored that of the Nasdaq Comp on Friday. The index closed the week up only .25% but that was good enough for an all-time weekly closing high. The index sits with only two distribution days in the count so it appears healthy from that prospective, however, we are still slightly bothered by the relative lack of volume since the index broke out on 10/5. The index did print its highest volume day since then on Friday, but was inflated by option expiration.
Now on to our open trades.
SEDG- Long since 7/12 at price of $21.47, we have been in trend following mode with the balance of our position and are now up 43.68% on those shares. The stock was able to break through resistance near $28.85 and finished up 2.88% for the week despite the brief spike down on Thursday morning. The push has enabled us to inch our stop up to near $27.50.
CAI- We took a long position here on 9/20 at a price of $29.35 and quickly locked down swing trade profits on the first half of our shares at $33.00 for a gain of 14.42%. The stock had an outstanding response to its quarterly earnings report on Friday and continued higher all day closing at $37.26, up over 18% for the week. We can be in for a consolidation period for at least a short while after such as large move, but that’s okay as we are always patient looking to capture bigger moves on the second half of our shares. Our stop gets moved up to near $32.00.
ICHR– We took our long position here on 10/10 at $28.64 and waited only four days to cash in our swing trade gains of 14.42%, selling half our shares at a price of $32.74. The stock added 3.64% for the week which leaves us up 18.25% on the second half of our trade. Somewhat of a consolidation here as well wouldn’t be much of a surprise. Our stop sits near $30.00.
GILD– Long since 7/13 at $70.79 we continue our trend following here with the second half of our shares. The stock has been consolidating its large spike up from early September for seven weeks now, and with a close of $81.21 on Friday, we are up 14.67% on the balance of our trade. Our stop again remains untouched near $77.00.
UBSI- Our newest trade has us long United Bankshares on a trend transition set up at a price of $37.25. We entered this trade a little closer to quarterly earnings (10/26) than we normally would but we have been watching the set up for a while and decided to take the trade. These are the type of discretionary decisions you occasionally make as a trader and then live with he results. The stock closed at $37.45 on Friday, up 1.35% for the week. Our stop stays near $35.25.
That’s all for now. Enjoy the rest of your weekend and be careful out there!