$SPY $DIA $IWM #trading #markets #stocks

OVERVIEW: A bit of a mixed market today with the small caps leading the losers with a loss of 0.49% and the Dow registering a much needed up day with a gain of 0.45% however, the index did finish near the lows for the session. On a positive note, it looks like when the final volume numbers come in that no distribution days will be registered as volume looks to have declined from yesterday across the indices. That’s said, when yesterdays final volume numbers were tallied, the S&P 500 chalked up its sixth distribution day in only the last 17 sessions. The Nasdaq has definitely outperformed and looks just a bit healthier in regards to the distribution picture however, the rash of recent distribution days in the S&P can’t be ignored. When we get the final totals from today trading activity we will reassess our official Market Gauge, but for now with only 50% of our portfolio invested it is safe to say we are still preceding with caution. Here is a look at the S&P 500 via the SPY as of the close tonight.

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$SPY $QQQ #markets #trading #stocks

OVERVIEW: It wasn’t a pretty day for the bulls today as the major indices reversed early gains and finished well into the red. The Nasdaq 100 and The Nasdaq Composite who had been leading the charge to the upside were the biggest losers in todays session. Here is an excerpt from this past weekends Weekly Market Prep in regards to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite…. “the index has now rallied over 5% since last Fridays lows and solidly recaptured its 50 day EMA. This, coupled with some nearby resistance, may signal some consolidation ahead”… “the index has come a long way in a short time, so perhaps some consolidation is due in the short term.” So, its not a big surprise here in regards to the pullback today however, although volume was not particularly heavy, the S&P 500 did register its 5th distribution day in the last 15 sessions. Additionally, The Nasdaq 100 decline came on a big increase in volume which marked the heaviest trade over the last eight sessions. We have been harping a bit about the lack of volume on up days so todays big volume increase in the Nasdaq 100 was not good to see. We must remember its only a day of trading and markets do have down days, but we must continue to put the pieces of the market puzzle together so we are always prepared and never caught off guard should sentiment change, let’s see what tomorrow brings. Before we wrap up our individual positions, here is an updated look at the S&P 500, which shows some hesitation again at the 78.6% retracement level of the correction, as well as a look at the Nasdaq 100.

$MKSI $KEM $RP $BB $NUE $TDOC $NEWR $BTU $CIEN $TSE $AKAM #trading #markets #stocks

 

Here’s another preview of the nightly recap TTP Trading members received from Greg on 3/8/18 detailing our buy of KEM earlier that day along with updates on open positions.  Members get updates, live trade alerts, and educational material from both myself and CJ Agresta (@TTPtrading on Twitter) at one low price of $69/month -cancel anytime.  Feel free to reach out with questions.  Here’s the post with the current updated trading results….

All,

Another trade was closed today for short term gains.  It’s been a good week as gains were booked on 6 trades so far this week with the average gain over 9%.  Nice to get these when we can.  Today’s partial sale was on QD which was alerted last Tuesday as it started breaking out of that nice bottoming base and a nice breakout it was.  I only sold half my shares here for a 10.5% gain.  The chart is strong so I’m hoping this one runs for us for a long time, and like all the swing sales this week, selling these partial shares for a gain helps me with my patience on the rest of the trade.  Everybody’s style may be a bit different but for me getting a quick reward helps me more easily take a step back and look at the big picture.  I guess I’m a trend-follower at heart but don’t have the patience to always act like it until I book some gains and scale back my position size.

I did have a buy today as well on KEM.  This company is the electrical components industry and has some solid growth numbers and fundamentals.  That’s nice but not why I bought.  This one had a big run up in December and January but gave up much of those gains (61.8% actually – a Fibonacci number) into the beginning of February where it has been forming a little base.  It had a nice move up today and I’m hoping this is the start of a bigger move.  Swing target is around the January highs of about $21.  Of course we always have to anticipate this could go against us like any trade.  If that happens, I’ll look to get out on a move under $17.  Here’s the chart:

Open positions below.  AKAM which we bought last week had a really nice move today gaining 7+%.   LULU’s not taking off the way I’d hoped so far and long time holding TECK’s chart is looking a littler week shorter-term.  I’ll be watching these and all other and will alert any moves I make.  Feel free to reach out with any questions.  Thank you.

Weekly Market Prep ( TTP Premium Freeview) $SPY $IWM $QQQ #trading #markets #nasdaq

MARKET GAUGE: Confirmed Uptrend Under Pressure

SECTORS EXHIBITING RECENT STRENGHT: Computer Software (Enterprise), Computer Software (Security), Computer Software (Desktop), Computer Software (Education), Commercial Services (Staffing), Retail (Internet), Retail (Restaurants), Retail (Shoes/Related)Medical (Products), Medical (Systems/Equipment), Financial (Regional Banks), Electronic (Semiconductors).

SECTORS EXHIBITING RECENT WEAKNESS: Building (Residential/Commercial), Automobile (Manufacturers), Mining (Metals/Ores), Oil/Gas (Refining), Oil/Gas (International Exploration/Production), Oil/Gas (Royalty Trust), Chemicals (Basic), Medical (Managed Care), Computer (Hardware/Peripherals), Transportation (Truck), Retail (Major Discount).

OVERVIEW: The market reversed three days of intense selling with a positive reversal on Friday however, we have moved to “confirmed uptrend under pressure” in our TTP Market Gauge. Market Indices confirmed a February 9th rally attempt on February 14th that transferred us from a market in correction back to a confirmed uptrend. During that time the major averages reclaimed much of those losses, but last weeks bearish action is putting pressure on that uptrend and any further selling next week on increasing volume can put the market back into correction territory. That said, Fridays reversal and some action in individual stocks may be showing some support underneath the surface. Additionally some of the fear indicators, such as the Put/Call Ratio, have reached extreme levels that often accompany a short term bottom. We have mentioned here countless times over the last several months that the 2018 market was not likely to exhibit the same behavior as the 2017 market and that theme has played out so far, mainly in the form of increased volatility. This years market may end up being more of a “stock pickers market” where traders will have to dig deeper under the surface and be much more nimble in finding solid trade opportunities. Our clients should continue to track the price and volume activity of the major indices to determine the level of aggressiveness they should proceed with in their trading accounts and be willing to go into cash, short individual stocks, or widely traded inverse ETFs that track the major averages if necessary. Routinely assessing the health of the major averages will help keep you on the right side of the market however, your main gauge should always be the price and volume action of your individual positions. We are still net long with four long positions and one short position and we are still roughly 50% in cash, and will slowly deploy that cash as index and individual stock action dictates. Newer and less experienced traders tend to pack things in and walk away at times like this, but markets like the one we are currently experiencing are more common then the trending markets that presented themselves over the last year or two. We would encourage these traders to stay in the game during these times, even if much of that time is spent on the sidelines watching the action and observing price behavior. The knowledge you gain during these types of markets will last you a lifetime and be extremely beneficial to your trading career. Being able to sit tight waiting for solid opportunities, keeping an open mind, being able to see the market from both sides and routinely assessing the market landscape are paramount to a traders success. Never give up! Well, enough of the soapbox for today, let’s take a good look at that market landscape through four of our favorite indices.

SPY- The S&P 500 rallied sharply from its 2/9 bottom and was turned back hard this week at the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level. A pullback near this level is not too surprising, in fact we alerted clients that this retracement levels usually presents a solid line of resistance, at least in the short term. What is noteworthy however, is the aggressive selling on the pullback with the index registering three straight distribution days. These three days, along with the distribution day the index registered on 2/21, marks the fourth such day in only the last eight sessions. Fridays rally on above average volume was a positive, but anymore distribution days next week will really put up the caution flags. Additionally, we would like to see the index remount its 50 day exponential moving average soon. Next weeks action will be important and will likely give us a large clue as to where we are headed.

NASDAQ- The Nasdaq Composite’s recovery from the correction has been slightly stronger than that of the S&P 500 as it ran past the 78.6% retracement before pulling back. Additionally the index has found support at its 50 day EMA over the last two sessions closing well above that level at Fridays close. Unfortunately the index is strapped with the same distribution picture as the S&P. The ability of the index to stay above its 50 day EMA will present a positive development.

IWM- As for the Russell 2000, which for the most part has been the laggard of the group, it was turned back near the $155 level that we identified over the last few weeks. Volume levels had been weak on its recovery signifying it was going to have trouble mounting the resistance. Fridays rally stopped shy of reclaiming the 50 day EMA and although the distribution picture is slightly better than that of its counterparts, a possible bearish head and shoulders pattern presents another variable that should be watched closely by traders. A rally back above the 50 day and push through prior resistance levels will squash the patterns development.

QQQ- Lastly we look at the Nasdaq 100 which has been the strongest of the group since the 2/9 bottom as the index was able to rally just shy of a full retracement from the recent correction. Friday mornings sell-off found support right at the 50 day EMA and the index closed firmly above that level by the closing bell. It also has posted four distribution days recently, but they have been a bit more widely spread out and have stretched over nine days as opposed to eight for the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500. Like the Nasdaq Composite, we will be watching for the index’s ability to hold above its 50 day EMA going forward.

That’s all for today. We will be back later this weekend with our Weekend Portfolio Review as well as our Weekend Watch List. Until then, enjoy your weekend!

-CJ

Premium Members receive the Weekly Market Prep every weekend as a part of their service along with real-time trade alerts, daily position and market recaps , weekly watch lists, sector reviews, educational articles and more. Membership includes access to both myself, as well as Greg Krupinski from GK Trading for one price of only $69/month. Join today at http://www.ttptrading.com

$IWM Small Caps Struggle To Keep Pace #trading #markets

Since the February 9th bottom, the Russell 2000’s rebound of 8.95% trails that of its counterparts. The Nasdaq has added nearly 12%, The Nasdaq 100 over 13% and the S&P 500 nearly 10%. The index also has some resistance to deal with in the form of its prior breakout level near $155.00 which it ran into during todays session. Volume has also run way below average levels over the last two trading sessions in which the index rallied. Is the recent rally tiring into this resistance? We will be keeping a close eye going forward.

IWM

Track Your Process, Not Your Equity #trading #markets #process

Our theory is, that if you have a sound system or methodology that you trade with, along with a sound money management component, all you need to do is to have the discipline to follow the plan and success will be a byproduct. Sounds simple enough, but to borrow a phrase from a fellow veteran trader , following your plan is the “hardest easiest thing you’ll ever do.”

If you have the privilege of sitting near your quote screen most of the day, be careful! Those pretty flashing lights tend to raise your adrenaline level and quite frankly our stupidity level. As a young trader I would constantly match my current trading portfolio with the market performance on a daily, or sometimes hourly basis and it led to many rash trading decisions and trading mistakes. Now when I feel stressed, I walk away for a bit, re-read some portions of my favorite trading books I have collected, or do something else non- market related in an effort to deflect my focus so I don’t micro manage positions.

What we have to remember is, that no matter how carefully we lay out each trade, stocks ultimately trade on their own individual time frames. There may be days when the market scores a big day and your portfolio is flat, or even worse. When this happens I would suggest that when the markets close and all is quiet, you consults your charts and review each trade set up. If the trade was placed properly according to your methodology and your stop loss is in place, enjoy the rest of the evening with your loved ones and perhaps you will find that tomorrow is your day to outperform the market.

Just remember, in the trading world your equity will fluctuate and occasional drawdowns are inevitable. However, I think you will find that if you stop hawking your trading balance minute by minute and hour by hour, focus on your trading process and follow your methodology with the necessary discipline, you will look up to the top left corner of that quote screen at the end of the month or quarter to find that your equity balance has taken care of itself.

CJ

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$EXAS Exact Sciences #trading #markets

This article originally appeared on 1/9 on our premium site http://www.ttptrading.com The stock is down over 20% since then and hit the swing target price today.

OVERVIEW: On Monday Exact Sciences, the makers of Cologaurd, a non-invasive test for colon cancer screening released preliminary fourth quarter sales forecast. Although the forecast was positive with most numbers at the high end analyst expectations, the stock sold off hard losing nearly 14% for the day. This selling marked the highest down volume day the stock has seen since early June of 2017. The stock started a tremendous run of the lows set in March of 2016 near $5.00 a share. The run in the stock continued until November 8th of 2017 when the stock marked its all-time high moving up to $63.60 intraday before reversing to close unchanged for the day. The stock has since gone into a correction that has seen its shares trade down to just below the $50 level in early December catching support at the prior breakout level and 23% Fibonacci retracement area. Today the stock revisited that level for the fourth time in the last three weeks but bounced, adding just over 5% on the session closing at $52.47. Although growth for this stock has been stellar, perhaps Mondays hard sell off on basically good news is a sign that traders and investors are ready to take some money off the table. The stock can offer up a shorting opportunity on renewed selling just below todays low near $49.40. This potential sell-off could carry down to the 38% Fibonacci retracement level near $41.00 a share, good for gains of around 16%. This level also coincides with the 200 day moving average which may also act a support mechanism for the stock. A second option for more aggressive traders is to look for an opportunity to short shares on a rejection at the 50 day EMA currently near $53.25 should the stock continue to recover in the short term. Here is a look at the chart.

EXASdaily

-CJ Agresta

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Is There Competition Ahead For Stocks? $TLT $IEF $SPY #bonds #trading #markets

This article was written on February 1st, nearly three weeks ago, for our premium subscribers alerting them to changes brewing under the surface.

OVERVIEW: I wasn’t planning on any type of article or review tonight however, I have been noticing a possible breakdown in bonds and thought I should pass this perspective along. We don’t get involved much in the interest rate scenario here as far as our trading is concerned, but the fact of the matter is that interest rates can have an effect on stock prices, so it is in our best interest as traders to be aware of such factors. It is very apparent the Federal Reserve has been on a slow but steady diet of raising interest rates and now Treasury Bond rates may be on the rise as well. Rising interest rate environments can ultimately raise enough competition to derail stock prices so, when I came across these charts I thought I would pass them along.

IEF- This is the iShares Barclays 7-10 year treasury bond fund weekly chart. We can see going back to 2010 a bull market commenced in bonds. This steady uptrend that has carried for the last seven years pushing interest rates lower and lower (remember bond prices up, interest rates down and vice/versa) has finally come to an end. Price broke trend line support in late 2016 giving us the first hint a change in character may be in the offing. During 2017 prices drifted sideway to higher before accelerating to the downside over the last month and has now broken through a key level support just this week.

TLT- This is the weekly chart of the longer maturity going out 20+ years. Here we can see a similar trend line that was established back in early 2011. This up trending support line has held on several occasion over the last seven years but is being challenge once again and in fact, closed todays session virtually on that line. I don’t have a crystal ball, but my guess at this point would be an eventual break of this line sooner than later.

SUMMARY: We ultimately don’t know where interest rates are headed over the longer term, but we do need to pay attention to this metric. Everything goes in cycles, sometimes much longer than we think they can, but there is a time when market dynamics change. The stock market has been good and interest rates have been low for an extended period of time and as traders we must make ourselves aware of possible changes brewing underneath the surface.

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