Premium Members Book Big Gains as $DWDP Fires Higher #trading #stocks #markets #options

DowDupont broke to the upside today and premium members who took positions in DWDP October $70 calls, after our trading alert last Wednesday, booked gains of nearly 50% in just four trading sessions. Premium Members have also recently scored gains of 74% in SKYW, and 25% in UPS in just three trading sessions. Go to http://www.ttptrading.com to get premium access to all our content including real-time stock and option trading alerts. See you there!

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Weekly Market Prep For 8/25 $SPY $IWM $QQQ $COMPQX #trading #stocks #markets

MARKET GAUGE: Confirmed Uptrend

OVERVIEW: Three of the four major indices we cover here were able to rally Friday posting new all-time closing highs, while the Nasdaq 100 fell just short despite a gain of nearly 1%. Time has been able to heel some of the distribution wounds the indices suffered in late July thru early August painting a more bullish picture as of late. At the same time, the markets have been able to shrug off the geopolitical headlines, as well as the local political headlines that continue to hit here in the states. The current five month uptrend that was confirmed back in April is still in tact. We were close to changing our Market Gauge from “Confirmed Uptrend” to “Uptrend Under Pressure” back in late July, but the indices quickly caught support. Since then the picture has improved, so let’s take a look at the charts and see where we stand heading into next week.

SPY- After Vacillating across resistance levels at new highs, the S&P 500 ETF was finally able to crack the code on Friday with a gain of 0.60% closing at $287.51, good for an all-time closing high. The gain came on an increase in trading volume over the prior two sessions where the index suffered losses. Any worry over the three consecutive poor closes Tuesday thru Thursday were wiped away as the index closed right near its highs for the week. The index now sits about 2.5% above its 50 day EMA and a little over 3% above the current five month trend line. Despite all the worry and concerns in regards to trade wars and the like, the index ETF is up nearly 7% since the lows hit in late July when the market was flashing some troubling signs. Distribution days have been scarce as of late as they have dwindled down to just three over the last 25 sessions. Volume may be historically thin in August, but those who have stayed away based on this premise have missed some good trading opportunities.

NASDAQ- We have been watching the Nasdaq Composite for a possible bullish resolution of an ascending triangle pattern that has been in the works as the index has climbed along a five month trend line toward new highs, and at least for now that bullish resolution is confirmed. For now things look good with the index as distribution days stand at only four over the last 25 sessions, but as always there are no guarantees the index follows thru on this current technical pattern. Sometimes these patterns suck in traders looking for the bullish breakout, then stage reversals catching the majority off guard, so we must always keep our discipline and stick to proper position sizing with our trades and of course honor our stop areas. Just to clarify, for those looking at the chart wondering why Thursdays volume increase is not marked as a distribution day, the loss of just 0.13% on the day fell short of the technical qualification for a distribution day of at least a 0.20% decline.

IWM- The Russell 2000 which had caused us the most concern in recent months has quickly righted the ship after traders came in supporting prices in late July and mid- August at 50 day EMA and trend support. Time has taken care of a heavy distribution picture that had developed from late June thru July and the quick turnaround pushed price right thru resistance into new high territory this week. Again, this why we must keep up with the index picture on a daily and weekly basis so we are not caught off guard when markets turn. There are currently five distribution days in the current count, but one of those days will be removed due to time after Mondays close.

QQQ- The Nasdaq 100 fell just shy of breaking in to new high territory on Friday, but has set up the same technical pattern of the Nasdaq Composite. The index sits with five distribution days in the current count, but a cluster these days that hit the index in late July will be coming of the count due to time late next week. Perhaps the index joins the party at new highs next week.

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Weekly Market Prep For 8/20 $SPY $IWM $QQQ $COMPQX $DIA #trading #stocks #markets

MARKET GAUGE: Confirmed Uptrend

OVERVIEW: After a mid-week shakeout, the indices strengthened late in the week. News of some possible progress in China trade talks helped stoke the fire on Friday, but markets starting showing some resiliency prior to this on Wednesday by holding some key support levels. Additionally, distribution pictures in the indices we monitor here are showing some improvement. The Russell 2000 small cap ETF, which we have been very cautious, if not bearish on lately, looks to be firming up quickly. As traders, we must learn to be flexible and objectively look at the current price action, if not, we risk taking losses far beyond what our trading plan laid out due to stubbornness and the desire to “be right.” At the same time, we may be passing up solid opportunities in the opposite direction. This creates a two headed monster, that in combination, negatively effects our returns. Now, let’s take our weekly look at what the indices may be telling us.

SPY- After approaching all-time highs in early August, the S&P 500 ETF sold off sharply. The sell-off was highlighted by two distribution days on 8/10 and 8/15. In keeping our distribution counts, we always highlight the fact that we must keep these days in context. The volume on the day of the decline, the percentage loss on the day, and where the index finished within the days range are three of the main details we must take into consideration. In looking at the loss the index suffered on 8/15, we can see that not only did the index bounce off support offered by the prior breakout area, but it also finished in the upper third of the range for the day. We have highlighted that day in the volume pane with a pink arrow to remind us that this day, although technically a distribution day by definition, may not have had quite the bearish overtone as it appeared at first glance. The index now has a very manageable four distribution days in the current count, including the 8/15 day which now appears to be more a sign of institutional support than distribution. The current confirmed uptrend that began in April now rides comfortably above its trend line, as well as the 50 day EMA painting a bullish picture heading into next week.

IWM- We will go right to the Russell 200 ETF today as it looks like the index may be trying to firm up. After being saddled with mounting distribution days in July, the index eventually broke thru a trend line it had carved out since April when a new confirmed uptrend began. The ensuing recovery attempt that was finding resistance at the bottom of that trend line has also been finding support at the 50 day EMA. We have also drawn in a second trend line this week that starts back in May where the index found support on the first pullback after the confirmed follow thru day of the current uptrend. The index seems to be finding support here as well and despite the recent bearish signs the index has flashed, it is still in very close striking distance to all-time high territory. Additionally, distribution days have been weaned down to a more manageable five over the last 25 sessions as the 7/16 day came off the books at the close on Friday. The index is still in a precarious spot technically, but we would advise caution to those who have built up bearish positions in this area.

NASDAQ- While the S&P 500 found support on Wednesday at its prior breakout level, the Nasdaq Composite has been finding support along a rising trend line and 50 day EMA. The index came under pressure in late July after being saddled with a cluster of distribution days. This led to a sell-off that also found trend and 50 day EMA support that was also aided by prior breakout support. Since then distribution days have become more of the exception than the rule and the index is currently working its way up into a narrowing ascending triangle. This bullish technical pattern may set up a breakout scenario to new highs in the not too distant future, but these patterns can break both ways. Should the index break lower in a bearish resolution of the pattern, we would be watching to see if the index quickly finds support near 7640, or the prior breakout area.

QQQ- Not much to add here as the Nasdaq 100 paints virtually the same picture to that of the Composite.

DIA- We normally don’t review the Dow Jones Industrials, but we think it is important to note that the index may be on the verge of a breakout. After a big run in late 2107 into January of 2018, the index suffered a steep decline that culminated with a double bottom that formed from February to April. But while the rest of the market went on the establish a confirmed uptrend the Dow has trended in a sideways chop for five months. Perhaps some clarity, or resolution to the current trade dispute will be the impetus to drive the index to breakout and challenge the old highs.

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Weekly Market Prep For 8/13 $SPY $IWM $QQQ $COMPQX #trading #stocks #markets

MARKET GAUGE: Confirmed Uptrend

OVERVIEW: The recent run by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite came to a screeching halt on Friday. The gap lower led to the first distribution day these two indices had registered since late July. The Small Cap Russell 2000 continues to look weak as it racked up distribution day number seven over the last 25 sessions. After the recent run up, which included an eight session winning streak by the Nasdaq, a pullback was not a big surprise, but we never like to see large increases in trade on down days. Distribution days will occasional pop up, even in the best of markets, but we must be on the lookout daily for potential signs of weakening ahead. Healthy markets can withstand five to six distribution days over a running 25 session count, but anymore than this may signal some trouble ahead and may be cause for some caution. Of course, large sell-offs and reversals in trend do not have to necessarily announce themselves in such an orderly fashion, but when they do, there is no excuse not to take the proper precautions such as limiting new purchases, getting off of margin, and tightening stops. So with that, let’s look and see where the indices stand heading into trading next week.

SPY- After its recent break out of a long consolidation, the ETF paused mid-week just below all-time highs. However, the gentle pause turned into a large gap down on Friday as trading expanded to twice the turnover posted in Thursdays session. The ETF came into the week in good shape as far as the distribution picture was concerned, so we will take the late week sell-off in stride, but there is no guarantee we visit new all-time highs soon. In fact, we can fall quite a bit further before hitting the 50 day EMA, and even further yet before challenging the trend line that dates back to April. If such a pullback does occur, watch to see if it is constructive, or is littered with new distribution days. The market can often tip its hand, but we must be willing to listen to what it is telling us.

NASDAQ- The Nasdaq Composite greeted traders rudely as well on Friday, but a series of bearish tight range candles at near new highs hinted of some indecisiveness by traders at this level, and this hesitation turned into to selling on Friday. After compiling a rash of distribution days in July, the index settled down nicely in August, as Fridays losses marked only the first down session this month. Unlike the S&P 500, the index sits a bit closer to its recent uptrend line and has six distribution days already on the books so we will be watching trading closely early this week for signs of trouble on any further pullback. One positive to note is that the index will lose a distribution day after Wednesdays close due to time.

QQQ- Again, a very similar look to the Nasdaq 100 which is also straddled with six distribution days in the current count. The trend still remains up, but indices can alert to a correction long before trendlines are broken and this is why we habitually go thru this exercise.

IWM- The small caps need to be watched closely right now as they appear to be very fragile. We hinted last week that the bottom of the five month trendline may provide resistance on any near term recovery attempt and that has proven to be true thus far. We have been on caution here recently and Fridays new distribution day did not help improve our outlook. In fact, if the 50 day EMA does not hold on any new challenge, the index can fall quickly to challenge the $160 area. Seven distribution days are on the books here, but one will come off the count after Mondays close.

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Weekly Market Prep For 8/6 $SPY $IWM $QQQ $COMPQX #trading #stocks #markets

MARKET GAUGE: Confirmed Uptrend

OVERVIEW: After coming under fire last week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were able to hold serve at key support levels and keep the four month rally that started back in April alive, but the Small Caps are beginning to look the victim to a market rotation. With the earnings season winding down, we may be in store for a typical sleepy mid to late August, but these are hardly typical times and geopolitical headlines could hit at any time, so traders need to stay alert and prepared. Let’s take our weekly look at the four indices we cover here and see where we stand heading into next week.

SPY- After finally breaking out above formidable resistance near the $280 level last week, the index endured a test of that breakout area early this week. Price bounced off this level on Thursday eventually finishing near the high of the day, and a positive open along with a strong finish to Friday afternoons session provided some follow thru. The distribution picture here has been improving for a couple weeks, but should the index continue its advance, a rather large obstacle sits ahead at the old all-time highs near $286.63. The current rotation out of the small cap area, should it continue, may provide the catalyst to push the index to new highs, but plenty of work is still to be done. The ETF now sits with only three distribution days in the current count.

NASDAQ- After testing trilateral support early in the week, the Nasdaq Composite righted the ship with four straight positive sessions. Last week we mentioned that the old March high near 7640 was an important area for the index to hold, and this area was fortified by moving average and four month trend line support. Traders soaked this scenario up on Thursday with a beautiful trend day pushing price back into the four month uptrend channel. The next test lies near the old high at 7933. The index sits with a manageable five distribution days over the last 25 sessions, but any additional days tallied next week would taint the current bullish outlook.

QQQ- Not much to add here as the Nasdaq 100 is a carbon copy of the Composite. The old highs near 183 await any further rally. The index also sits with five distribution days in the current count.

IWM- The Russell 2000 has not answered the bell with the other indices. The index crashed thru its fourth month trend line last Friday and has been unable to remount it since. Although it has reclaimed the 50 day EMA, the index racked up another distribution day on Friday while the others indices advanced. The index seems to be adding distribution days as quickly as it has ben dropping them lately. We now sit with six such days within the last 19 sessions leaving us still cautious in regards to the small caps even though the index still sits within striking distance of the old highs. On any near term advance, we will be watching to see if it can reclaim its trend line, or if the index is turned back here.

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Premium Members Closeout $MRK Calls Today For Big Gains $MRK #trading #options #stocks #markets

TTP Trading premium members cashed out the last of their MRK August 65 calls today as the stock closed in on resistance near $66.00. Total gains for members totaled 79.51% in three weeks.

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TTP Trading Options $MRK $IWM $SKX $MNST $COP #trading #options #markets #stocks

Over the last month TTP premium members have been able to capture large gains with calls purchased on MRK for 85%, COP for 60%, SKX for 47%, and MNST for 18% and just recently, puts on IWM for gains of up to 150%. Join today as the new option side of the service kicks into high gear in August. Veteran swing trader Greg Krupinski has the TTP swing trading stock portfolio up over 16% on the year as well. Join today for access to all the service has to offer at just $69 per month at http://www.ttptrading.com See you there!

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