Weekly Market Prep For 8/20 $SPY $IWM $QQQ $COMPQX $DIA #trading #stocks #markets

MARKET GAUGE: Confirmed Uptrend

OVERVIEW: After a mid-week shakeout, the indices strengthened late in the week. News of some possible progress in China trade talks helped stoke the fire on Friday, but markets starting showing some resiliency prior to this on Wednesday by holding some key support levels. Additionally, distribution pictures in the indices we monitor here are showing some improvement. The Russell 2000 small cap ETF, which we have been very cautious, if not bearish on lately, looks to be firming up quickly. As traders, we must learn to be flexible and objectively look at the current price action, if not, we risk taking losses far beyond what our trading plan laid out due to stubbornness and the desire to “be right.” At the same time, we may be passing up solid opportunities in the opposite direction. This creates a two headed monster, that in combination, negatively effects our returns. Now, let’s take our weekly look at what the indices may be telling us.

SPY- After approaching all-time highs in early August, the S&P 500 ETF sold off sharply. The sell-off was highlighted by two distribution days on 8/10 and 8/15. In keeping our distribution counts, we always highlight the fact that we must keep these days in context. The volume on the day of the decline, the percentage loss on the day, and where the index finished within the days range are three of the main details we must take into consideration. In looking at the loss the index suffered on 8/15, we can see that not only did the index bounce off support offered by the prior breakout area, but it also finished in the upper third of the range for the day. We have highlighted that day in the volume pane with a pink arrow to remind us that this day, although technically a distribution day by definition, may not have had quite the bearish overtone as it appeared at first glance. The index now has a very manageable four distribution days in the current count, including the 8/15 day which now appears to be more a sign of institutional support than distribution. The current confirmed uptrend that began in April now rides comfortably above its trend line, as well as the 50 day EMA painting a bullish picture heading into next week.

IWM- We will go right to the Russell 200 ETF today as it looks like the index may be trying to firm up. After being saddled with mounting distribution days in July, the index eventually broke thru a trend line it had carved out since April when a new confirmed uptrend began. The ensuing recovery attempt that was finding resistance at the bottom of that trend line has also been finding support at the 50 day EMA. We have also drawn in a second trend line this week that starts back in May where the index found support on the first pullback after the confirmed follow thru day of the current uptrend. The index seems to be finding support here as well and despite the recent bearish signs the index has flashed, it is still in very close striking distance to all-time high territory. Additionally, distribution days have been weaned down to a more manageable five over the last 25 sessions as the 7/16 day came off the books at the close on Friday. The index is still in a precarious spot technically, but we would advise caution to those who have built up bearish positions in this area.

NASDAQ- While the S&P 500 found support on Wednesday at its prior breakout level, the Nasdaq Composite has been finding support along a rising trend line and 50 day EMA. The index came under pressure in late July after being saddled with a cluster of distribution days. This led to a sell-off that also found trend and 50 day EMA support that was also aided by prior breakout support. Since then distribution days have become more of the exception than the rule and the index is currently working its way up into a narrowing ascending triangle. This bullish technical pattern may set up a breakout scenario to new highs in the not too distant future, but these patterns can break both ways. Should the index break lower in a bearish resolution of the pattern, we would be watching to see if the index quickly finds support near 7640, or the prior breakout area.

QQQ- Not much to add here as the Nasdaq 100 paints virtually the same picture to that of the Composite.

DIA- We normally don’t review the Dow Jones Industrials, but we think it is important to note that the index may be on the verge of a breakout. After a big run in late 2107 into January of 2018, the index suffered a steep decline that culminated with a double bottom that formed from February to April. But while the rest of the market went on the establish a confirmed uptrend the Dow has trended in a sideways chop for five months. Perhaps some clarity, or resolution to the current trade dispute will be the impetus to drive the index to breakout and challenge the old highs.

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Weekly Market Prep For 8/13 $SPY $IWM $QQQ $COMPQX #trading #stocks #markets

MARKET GAUGE: Confirmed Uptrend

OVERVIEW: The recent run by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite came to a screeching halt on Friday. The gap lower led to the first distribution day these two indices had registered since late July. The Small Cap Russell 2000 continues to look weak as it racked up distribution day number seven over the last 25 sessions. After the recent run up, which included an eight session winning streak by the Nasdaq, a pullback was not a big surprise, but we never like to see large increases in trade on down days. Distribution days will occasional pop up, even in the best of markets, but we must be on the lookout daily for potential signs of weakening ahead. Healthy markets can withstand five to six distribution days over a running 25 session count, but anymore than this may signal some trouble ahead and may be cause for some caution. Of course, large sell-offs and reversals in trend do not have to necessarily announce themselves in such an orderly fashion, but when they do, there is no excuse not to take the proper precautions such as limiting new purchases, getting off of margin, and tightening stops. So with that, let’s look and see where the indices stand heading into trading next week.

SPY- After its recent break out of a long consolidation, the ETF paused mid-week just below all-time highs. However, the gentle pause turned into a large gap down on Friday as trading expanded to twice the turnover posted in Thursdays session. The ETF came into the week in good shape as far as the distribution picture was concerned, so we will take the late week sell-off in stride, but there is no guarantee we visit new all-time highs soon. In fact, we can fall quite a bit further before hitting the 50 day EMA, and even further yet before challenging the trend line that dates back to April. If such a pullback does occur, watch to see if it is constructive, or is littered with new distribution days. The market can often tip its hand, but we must be willing to listen to what it is telling us.

NASDAQ- The Nasdaq Composite greeted traders rudely as well on Friday, but a series of bearish tight range candles at near new highs hinted of some indecisiveness by traders at this level, and this hesitation turned into to selling on Friday. After compiling a rash of distribution days in July, the index settled down nicely in August, as Fridays losses marked only the first down session this month. Unlike the S&P 500, the index sits a bit closer to its recent uptrend line and has six distribution days already on the books so we will be watching trading closely early this week for signs of trouble on any further pullback. One positive to note is that the index will lose a distribution day after Wednesdays close due to time.

QQQ- Again, a very similar look to the Nasdaq 100 which is also straddled with six distribution days in the current count. The trend still remains up, but indices can alert to a correction long before trendlines are broken and this is why we habitually go thru this exercise.

IWM- The small caps need to be watched closely right now as they appear to be very fragile. We hinted last week that the bottom of the five month trendline may provide resistance on any near term recovery attempt and that has proven to be true thus far. We have been on caution here recently and Fridays new distribution day did not help improve our outlook. In fact, if the 50 day EMA does not hold on any new challenge, the index can fall quickly to challenge the $160 area. Seven distribution days are on the books here, but one will come off the count after Mondays close.

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Weekly Market Prep For 8/6 $SPY $IWM $QQQ $COMPQX #trading #stocks #markets

MARKET GAUGE: Confirmed Uptrend

OVERVIEW: After coming under fire last week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were able to hold serve at key support levels and keep the four month rally that started back in April alive, but the Small Caps are beginning to look the victim to a market rotation. With the earnings season winding down, we may be in store for a typical sleepy mid to late August, but these are hardly typical times and geopolitical headlines could hit at any time, so traders need to stay alert and prepared. Let’s take our weekly look at the four indices we cover here and see where we stand heading into next week.

SPY- After finally breaking out above formidable resistance near the $280 level last week, the index endured a test of that breakout area early this week. Price bounced off this level on Thursday eventually finishing near the high of the day, and a positive open along with a strong finish to Friday afternoons session provided some follow thru. The distribution picture here has been improving for a couple weeks, but should the index continue its advance, a rather large obstacle sits ahead at the old all-time highs near $286.63. The current rotation out of the small cap area, should it continue, may provide the catalyst to push the index to new highs, but plenty of work is still to be done. The ETF now sits with only three distribution days in the current count.

NASDAQ- After testing trilateral support early in the week, the Nasdaq Composite righted the ship with four straight positive sessions. Last week we mentioned that the old March high near 7640 was an important area for the index to hold, and this area was fortified by moving average and four month trend line support. Traders soaked this scenario up on Thursday with a beautiful trend day pushing price back into the four month uptrend channel. The next test lies near the old high at 7933. The index sits with a manageable five distribution days over the last 25 sessions, but any additional days tallied next week would taint the current bullish outlook.

QQQ- Not much to add here as the Nasdaq 100 is a carbon copy of the Composite. The old highs near 183 await any further rally. The index also sits with five distribution days in the current count.

IWM- The Russell 2000 has not answered the bell with the other indices. The index crashed thru its fourth month trend line last Friday and has been unable to remount it since. Although it has reclaimed the 50 day EMA, the index racked up another distribution day on Friday while the others indices advanced. The index seems to be adding distribution days as quickly as it has ben dropping them lately. We now sit with six such days within the last 19 sessions leaving us still cautious in regards to the small caps even though the index still sits within striking distance of the old highs. On any near term advance, we will be watching to see if it can reclaim its trend line, or if the index is turned back here.

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Premium Members Closeout $MRK Calls Today For Big Gains $MRK #trading #options #stocks #markets

TTP Trading premium members cashed out the last of their MRK August 65 calls today as the stock closed in on resistance near $66.00. Total gains for members totaled 79.51% in three weeks.

mrk

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TTP Trading Options $MRK $IWM $SKX $MNST $COP #trading #options #markets #stocks

Over the last month TTP premium members have been able to capture large gains with calls purchased on MRK for 85%, COP for 60%, SKX for 47%, and MNST for 18% and just recently, puts on IWM for gains of up to 150%. Join today as the new option side of the service kicks into high gear in August. Veteran swing trader Greg Krupinski has the TTP swing trading stock portfolio up over 16% on the year as well. Join today for access to all the service has to offer at just $69 per month at http://www.ttptrading.com See you there!

mrk

Weekly Market Prep For 7/30 $IWM $SPY $QQQ $COMPQX #trading #stocks #options # markets

 

OVERVIEW: Despite the rough end to the week, the major indices continue to be in a confirmed uptrend. The possibility exists that we are seeing some sector rotation, or at worst the beginnings of some defensive posturing. Whatever the case, we will continue to monitor the markets on a day to day, and week to week basis for clues as to where we may be heading rather than taking a wild stab at what may lie ahead. Fridays action again shows why it is important to monitor distribution in the indices. Trimming some positions and raising a bit of cash should have protected members accounts, and some protection offered by our IWM puts limited the damage further. Let’s take a detailed look at where we stand heading into Monday.

SPY- After breaking thru the $280 level convincingly mid-week, Fridays selling took the index right back down to that breakout level, before bouncing a bit and closing at $281.42. We chalked up a distribution day in the process giving us a total of five, however, the 6/25 day will come off the count after Mondays close, so things still look fair for the index in this regard. We are still well above trend as well as the 50 day EMA, but a close back below the $280 level will be a bit of a set back. Let’s see if the bulls step up their game early next week. The index may need some more time to consolidate before taking on the old highs near $286.

NASDAQ- The Nasdaq did break back below the 7800 level where is staged a mini breakout earlier this month, however, I don’t feel this is the most important line of support. I will be watching just a bit further down to roughly the 7640-7660 area where the real support may lie in confluence with trend and the 50 day EMA. This area also aligns with horizontal support/resistance that dates back to March of this year. Although still in a confirmed uptrend, the recent barrage of distribution days has me on guard, at least in the short term.

QQQ- The Nasdaq 100 is also nearing merging areas of support. The four month up trending channel aligns roughly with the 50 day EMA as well as the magical $175 level. The index, which currently sits with six distribution days, will also lose a day due to time after the close Monday. However, the weekly chart looks a bit more ominous as it shows distribution four of the last six weeks with little upside volume to complement. Here is a look at both time frames.

IWM- Relative strength has been waning for our former star of the show. Eight days of distribution over the last 25 sessions proved too much for the index to overcome as it shed near 2% in Fridays session. The four month trend line was broken, but the decline did stop right on the 50 day EMA. I would be watching to see just how strong any bounce here is, should we get one early next week. If the 50 day EMA doesn’t hold, a move down to the prior breakout area near $160 is in the cards.

Join us at our premium site at http://www.ttptrading.com for full access to all our features including real-time stock and option trading alerts. Veteran trader Greg Krupinski of GK Trading runs our swing to position trading portfolio. He is hitting at a 60% win rate with winners returning nearly double the losers. Here is a look year to date look at all trades opened and closed, plus a look at the weekend video all members receive previewing trading opportunities for the coming week. We will be officially launching our option trading service very soon as well and you get full access to both for only $69 per month. See you there!

 

GK Trading – TTP Portfolio Tracking

Note To TTP Trading Premium Members In Our Thursday Evening “Market Wrap” $IWM $COMPQX $SPY #trading #stock #markets #smallcaps

Each evening our premium members receive an evening “Wrap Up” highlighting the days action in the indices, as well as our current open trades. Here is an excerpt from our note sent out this Thursday evening after the close of trading.

OVERVIEW: The Nasdaq Composite took a hit as we expected losing 1% on the session picking up its third distribution day in the last six sessions. The index did lose one day due to time today at the close, and has five total over the last 24 sessions, and it will lose another after the close tomorrow. While it is good to see the index losing some older distribution days, the cluster that have hit recently has my attention. Meanwhile the S&P 500 looks a bit more tame as it too lost a distribution day today leaving the index with only four on the books, and its losses today were much more modest as volume fell over yesterdays session. The Russell 2000 gained 0.54% today but did finish off of its earlier highs. The index lost an old distribution day as well, but still has a high total of seven over the last 25 sessions…. As I mentioned last night, we may be in the midst of a rotation, or perhaps traders are taking a bit of a defensive posture, but my trader instinct had me taking some money off the table and purchasing some Russell 2000 puts… hold some puts as a bit of protection should the recent distribution in the small caps turn into a larger sell-off…

Here is a look at how the small caps closed on Friday.

IWM

Members who followed our alert and purchased the August 10th expiry puts in IWM netted gains of 100-150% overnight. You can join myself, as well as veteran trader Greg Krupinski at http://www.ttptrading.com to receive real-time stock and option trading alerts as well as in depth coverage of the indices, market sectors, sub-sectors, nightly reviews of all open positions and much, much more. See you there!

$TXRH $KSS $TTWO $CLF #trading #stocks #markets

Here is a recent example of a trade alerted to our members from Greg Krupinski of GK Trading. Members netted 8.6% gains in just a couple hours on the first half of their shares and are holding the second half for possible further gains.

I’m entering a full position in CLF here at 9.18.  Breaking above 9 was big for this name and with a solid earnings release this morning they are trading there now so I’m getting in.  I’d say this is buyable in the 9 – 9.30 range.  Stop around 8.50.

clf

I’m selling half of the CLF shares I bought this morning at 9.97.  8.6% gain in a couple hours.  Obviously lots of demand for these shares so let’s see what this second half can do.

Here are a few recent highlighted trading ideas from my evening “Wrap Up” report that members receive on a nightly basis. Members also received a detailed weekend video from Greg highlighting up to ten new ideas for the upcoming week.

TXRH- Trending shares of Texas Roadhouse have been on our radar screen lately, and after offering traders a long opportunity on 7/2 by printing a bullish hammer at support, is still in consideration for a trade now. The stock popped up again today above the top of a symmetrical triangle offering another long signal. If still not in the trade, perhaps tomorrow may still offer an opportunity if the stock doesn’t follow through too quickly on todays gains.

txrh

TTWO- Take Two Interactive is another stock in the group that has been acting well. The stock tried to breakout in February, but was thrown back hard during the spring correction. It has since formed a cup and handle base on this daily chart forming a bullish looking triangle pattern. The stock traded higher by 1.5% today, but was turned back at resistance at the top of the formation. There is plenty of support offered by the current trend line and the horizontal support between $117-$120 that dates back to last fall. Options for a long trade a similar to ATVI above.

ttwo

KSS- Kohl’s staged a nice breakout at the beginning of June, but has now worked its way back toward two lines of support, those being the 50 day EMA and the prior breakout area near $70.00. We will be watching for an narrow range (NR7) bar, or perhaps a hammer type bar that signals the stock may be ready to move back higher. A second option would be to wait until the stock breaks through the top of the descending triangle that is forming. Yet another option for aggressive traders is to buy now with a stop just under the prior breakout area.

kss

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Weekly Market Prep For 7/23 $SPY $QQQ $IWM $COMPQX #trading #stocks #markets

MARKET GAUGE: Confirmed Uptrend

*Weekly Sector Watch highlights several industry groups that have experienced a measurable change in strength or weakness relative to other groups over the last 3-6 week period.

SECTORS EXHIBITING RECENT STRENGTH: Software (Medical), Software (Application) Software (Infrastructure), Internet (Content), Electronics (Misc. Products) Electronics (Wholesale), Electronics (Parts), Medical (Long Term Care), Medical (Biotech), Medical (Products), Medical (Research Equip/Services), Leisure (Products), Leisure (Services), Media (Diversified).

SECTORS EXHIBITING RECENT WEAKNESS:  Energy (Solar), Energy (Coal), Oil/Gas (Refining/Marketing), Oil/Gas (Drilling), Oil/Gas (Machine/Equip), Oil/Gas(Integrated), Oil/Gas (Field Services), Mining (Metals/Ores), Banks (Super Regional), Steel (Producers), Steel (Specialty Alloys), Transportation (Ship), Transportation (Truck), Financial (Investment Banks/Brokers), Electronic (Semiconductor Fabless).

OVERVIEW: A look at the recent sector strength above shows not much has changed since last week, and not coincidentally, the indices also traded pretty much unchanged for the week. Financials, particularly the large money center banks, have shown some vigor lately, but are still looking up at the market leaders and have a long way to go to right the ship. On the flip side, medical related issues and software stocks continue to dominate the top of the leaderboard, along with internet related issues. Fridays option expiration mirrored the activity for the week as most major indices traded flat, with the exception of the small cap Russell 2000, which finished with a modest 0.41% loss after racking up three straight positive sessions previously. Markets have endured a lot of political crosswinds recently, and when you add that we are heading into the heart of earnings season, trading could be tough to navigate in the days and weeks ahead. The indices head into next week at interesting chart levels, so let’s take a closer look.

SPY- The ETF we used to track the S&P 500 made an attempt early in the week to push thru that stubborn $280 level, which also marks the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the February correction low, but couldn’t quite seal the deal and closed the week at $279.86. The passage of time is slowly helping the distribution picture here and next week will see two additional days removed from the rolling 25 session count. Things appear to be improving for the index recently as over the last 16 sessions it has only seen two days of institutional selling. It also remains in an uptrend that it has carved out since the April rally confirmation and again sits above the 50 day EMA. With the monthly option expiration behind us, let’s see if the index can convincingly push through resistance and attack the old highs near $286. While earnings are generally projected to come in very well, we will be watching traders reactions to these earnings as a possible clue as to where we may be headed.

NASDAQ- The Nasdaq Composite sits with five distribution days on the books, but has also righted the ship more recently in this regard, and it too will see two days of selling removed from the books next week. After making new highs on Tuesday, the index has failed to follow thru and instead has printed some narrow range consolidation days just above the breakout level. For now, there is nothing magical about this level as the index is still in a strong four month trend and riding well above the 50 day EMA. We will be watching for any move back down below the breakout level to hold trend and 50 day support.

QQQ- As for the Nasdaq 100, we have drawn in a nice up trending channel the index has carved out over the last four months which has the index is looking well from this perspective. The Q’s have six distribution days on the books, but like the others we lose two days from the current count next week due to time. Fridays options inflated volume does count as a distribution day as the microscopic loss of .02% does not qualify.

IWM- The Russell 2000 had us mildly concerned last week at this time, but some mid-week strength in the index helped alleviate some of that. The four month uptrend has now formed an ascending triangle formation near recent highs and we could see resolution to this pattern in the coming days. Despite the high distribution count of seven days over the last 21 sessions the solid uptrend remains in tact, and a break to new highs will alleviate our mild concerns and have us feeling much better about the small caps.

Join us at our premium site http://www.ttptrading.com where you will get access to myself, as well as veteran trader Greg Krupinski of GK Trading for real-time stock and option trading alerts, daily and weekly market analysis, daily and weekly reviews of our trades, daily and weekly trade ideas, sector analysis and much more. See you there!