Weekly Market Prep For 9/24 $SPY $IWM $QQQ $COMPQX #trading #stocks #markets #indices

MARKET GAUGE: Confirmed Uptrend, Caution Still Warranted

OVERVIEW: It was a busy week with option expiration and index rebalancing adding to normal volume levels, but in the end we ended up with only a modest week to the downside for the four main indices we track here. However, the blue chip stocks separated themselves from the pack this week with the Dow Jones gaining 2%. In the short term we have a bit of a split market with large cap stocks picking up steam while small caps and some techs running in place. These areas have been able to hang around and hold some key technical areas but have not been able to pull away, while in the meantime, the S&P 500 continues its methodical march higher. Some distribution days were registered across the indices on Friday, but as I always preach, we must take things in context. The options expiration and index rebalancing greatly effected the normal volume flow, so while we won’t totally ignore the selling on Friday we will greatly discount it in in the larger scope and I have shaded the arrow in the volume pane in pink to highlight this event. You can see that our Market Gauge is still in confirmed uptrend mode, but I still feel some caution is warranted in our trading activities. This means having a bit more patience in waiting for quality set ups, and perhaps keeping a bit more cash on hand in your account. Now, let’s take a look at the index charts and see where we are heading into next week.

SPY- This area continues to act better than its counterparts as the slow and steady uptrend from the confirmed rally that began in the spring continues to unfold. The two prior breakout levels that were tested in the summer have held and the index has not threatened its 50 day EMA for nearly three months. Distribution days have been scarce for the ETF with only two in the books discounting Fridays inflated volume figure, so there are no present concerns in this regard. I will remind you again however, that a sharp correction in the markets do not have to announce themselves in the form of mounting distribution days, so always honor you stops and trade responsibly. Traders should be prepared for a pullback should the ETF rally into the upper end of the channel.

NASDAQ- The Nasdaq Composite successfully tested a three month trendline early in the week, reclaimed its August breakout level on Thursday with a nice rally and was able to close above that level to end the week despite the 0.51% loss on Friday. I have redrawn the trendlines this week shortening up the timeframe a bit which may show the very slightest appearance of a possible rising wedge formation. Remember however, as much as trendlines can be a great aid in technical analysis, we feel that horizontal support, the 50 day EMA and the tracking of distribution days hold the most weight with our index analysis. We can see here that we have four distribution days on the books discounting Fridays inflated figure, shy of the 5-7 days over the course of 20-25 sessions that would raise caution flags for us.

QQQ- For the Nasdaq 100 we have left the longer term trendlines in place to show the resistance that has formed on the underneath of the nearly five month up trending channel. The index was able to reclaim the August breakout this week, but we do have five distribution days, plus the contextual day of selling Friday, spanning only the last 14 sessions. Another distribution day early next week would start to raise some caution flags for the 100.

IWM- The small cap Russell 2000 has been trying hard to hold the key $170 level which marks the point of the August breakout, but just hasn’t been able to pull away, and the more time it spends hugging and testing that support the more precarious the situation will get. We can see a huge spike in volume from the index rebalancing on Friday and we have four distribution days in the count for the month of September with one week to go. Should the $170 area give way we will be watching to see if the 50 day EMA, which sits close below, contains the selling.

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Premium Members Score Big Profits In $EW #stocks #trading #markets #options

Premium Members were alerted to purchase the October 150/165 vertical call spread in EW on 9/19 for $3.15. We alerted today to close out that spread for $5.60 representing a 78% gain in three sessions. A combination of technicals plus some unusual activity in the October calls led us to this trade. Come and trade with us at http://www.ttptrading.com to get the full benefits of premium membership. See you there!

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TTP Five For 9/17 $GCO $AJRD $COP $MEDP $SKYW #trading #markets #stocks

Each week Premium Members receive a watchlist of up to 20 trading ideas and are alerted if any of these ideas are added to the trading portfolio. Here are five for the week of 9/17.

GCO- Genesco is a part of the high flying Footwear/Apparel group. The stock recently broke out of a five month base and has now returned to a tri-lateral area of support at breakout, trend and the 50 day EMA. The current close near $47.00 may present a low risk area to initiate a long trade with a stop in the $44.50 area.

AJRD- Aerojet Rocketdyne is a part of an aerospace/defense group that is showing signs of renewed life recently. The stock exploded out of an eight month base in late August  printing a power spike bar  that saw follow thru buying into mid- August. A three week pullback has now reached the 50 day EMA which may be an area where traders can hop on board in anticipation of the next move higher. A stop just below the recent breakout may represent a good area for your initial stop.

COP- The energy area has been a tough sector to gauge with some stocks showing signs of strength while other have underperformed and have shown signs of breaking down. ConocoPhilips has sucked traders in on two prior breakout attempts only to see them fail. The last failed attempt two weeks ago had the appearance of a breakdown of a prior four month ascending base, but buyers quickly stepped in supporting price near trend and the 50 day EMA sending price back up and testing new highs. Aggressive traders could buy now, while others may want to wait for a close above $73.50 on supporting volume before committing to a new long position.

MEDP- MedPace is a potential momentum play in a hot Diagnostic & Research group and is currently a leading earnings gainer within that group. The stock has been consolidating a huge gap higher in price from late July for the past six weeks and closed near the top of that consolidation on Friday. Look for a close above $64 on supporting volume with a potential stop near $61.00.

SKYW- Major airline stocks have been flying high lately and regional carrier SkyWest recently broke out of a six month base and has now pulled back to the breakout area which coincides with the 50 day EMA as well as the 38% Fibonacci retracement area from the late June rally to the early September high. This spot may make for a low risk area to initiate a long trade with a very tight stop just beneath the shaded area around $58.50.

Join us at http://www.ttptrading.com for full access to all the Premium Member features such as real-time stock and option alert from myself as well as veteran trader Greg Krupinski of GK Trading. See you there!

Weekly Market Prep For 9/17 $SPY $QQQ $IWM $COMPQX #markets #stocks #trading #indices #nasdaq

MARKET GAUGE: Confirmed Uptrend, But Caution Still Warranted

OVERVIEW: I was tempted to remove the cautionary note from our Market Gauge this weekend as some distribution days have dropped off the indices due to time, the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 closed the week back above their prior break levels and the indices held their longer term trend lines for the most part. However, as we saw Friday, the markets are still very vulnerable to trade news and algorithms quickly take over moving markets very quickly. The markets are still very tradable to the upside, but we feel curtailing your activity, or position size may be prudent right now. The Russell 2000, that has been lagging just a bit recently, outperformed on Friday closing back above its prior breakout level. Markets confirmed a new uptrend back in April and those trends remain in place, although the trend in small caps is a bit more tenuous right now. Let’s take our weekly look at the charts and see how we shape up heading into next week.

SPY- The trend in the S&P 500 continues to look solid. After hitting the upper end of its bullish channel in late August, the subsequent pullback seems to have held after having tested the previous breakout level. Distribution days have been pared down to two over the last 25 sessions leaving a healthy look to the index, and as of Fridays close it sits comfortably above the 50 day EMA. I will reiterate however, that corrective action in the indices does not necessarily have to preannounce itself in the form of building distribution days. This market is still vulnerable to trade news and any announcement of failed talks or added tariffs could hit the market in a hard way. It is true there is always something to worry about in the markets so we continue to trade, but we must always remember to respect risk, honor our stops and cut losses short.

NASDAQ- The Nasdaq Composite survived a test of the longer term trend and jumped back above its prior breakout level during Thursdays session and was able to hold there to close the week. Distribution days, which had been somewhat of a concern last week, have been pared down to four and we have not registered a fresh distribution day in over a week. Application and Infrastructure Software names remain hot helping to buoy the index.

QQQ- Late last week the Nasdaq 100 sold off crashing thru the prior breakout level and slicing across the longer term uptrend line. The selling stopped just short of the 50 day EMA early this week and price jumped back above the breakout level. Friday saw some back and forth action with the index holding the breakout level but closing slightly back below the trend line and we did, just by a whisker rack up a distribution day. Its always nice to stay above trend lines, but I feel the 50 day EMA is always a more important support level. We added a distribution day here as quickly as we dropped one on Friday so the count remains at six days over the last 25 sessions, enough to keep our attention.

IWM- The small caps have lagged a bit recently and the index is trying to hold the former breakout level near $170. It would have been nice for the index to pull further away from resistance with the August breakout but we don’t always get what we want in the markets. Perhaps we are building a base right on top of the prior one, only time will tell. A slight adjustment to the trend line this week still shows the index holding tight and distribution days have been dwindled down to only three. Let’s hope Fridays outperformance is a sign of things to come.

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Weekly Market Prep For 9/10 $SPY $QQQ $IWM $COMPQX #trading #stocks #markets #study #indices

MARKET GAUGE: Confirmed Uptrend, However Some Caution is Warranted

As you can see from our Market Gauge we are still in Confirmed Uptrend territory, however, I feel some caution may be warranted at this time. This means to ratchet down your trading activity a bit, keep a bit more cash on hand, and perhaps tighten some of your stops. The indices have come back to test prior breakout support, or longer term trend lines, and in some cases have broken thru these levels. Markets may very well successfully test these levels and bounce back strongly, but a cluster of distribution days, particularly in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 have gotten our attention. Strong bull markets can sometimes withstand six or even seven distribution days over the course over 25 sessions, but in the tech area we have seen five days accumulate in only the last 20 sessions which is enough to raise our antenna. It never hurts to curtail your trading a bit, but one can do serious damage to their account when they ignore possible warning signs, again I say possible. No one knows for sure where we are headed, but we can pay close attention to what’s right in front us and that’s what we do here. So let’s see what the charts may be telling us.

SPY- The S&P 500 ETF has the better look of the four indices we track here with only three distribution days on the books, however it did narrowly escape one on Friday by a whisker as losses stopped just short of the 0.20% requirement. The index is still well within the uptrend channel but has come back down to test the prior breakout support. These pullbacks can be healthy and necessary to sustain a bull run, so hopefully this is all we are seeing here. A break thru this support area around the $286 level can still be contained by the 50 day EMA and longer term five month uptrend line keeping the longer term bull trend in tact, however any new purchases can take a hit on a sharp pullback to these levels stopping traders out with quick losses. We like to use the ETF here, but the S&P 500 index itself has five distribution days on the books so this, as well as the recent distribution we have seen in the tech area, dictates our cautionary stance at this time.

NASDAQ- The Nasdaq Composite doesn’t currently have the margin of error the S&P 500 enjoys. The index has already broken thru previous breakout support and also threatened the five month uptrend line on Friday. Additionally the index doesn’t sit too far from the next line of support at the 50 day EMA. Adding to the dilemma, the index has been hit with a sudden cluster of heavy selling days racking up three day of institutional selling in short order. This now gives the index five distribution days over just the last 20 sessions, enough for us to raise some caution flags. To a lesser concern, the channel that the Nasdaq has carved out is not as clean as the S&P 500’s as it has just the slightest appearance of a more broadening top pattern.

QQQ- The Nasdaq 100 has a bigger issue as it has clearly cut thru the five month uptrend where it had previously found support on four prior occasions and has tallied four straight distribution days, clearly enough to get a traders attention. The 50 day EMA is now in play, and should the index not hold that mark, a move down to the previous breakout level near $175 is possible. This represents potential of 3% to the downside.

IWM- The small caps have also come down to test an important converging area of support at trend and prior breakout near $170. The index has a more spread out pattern of five distribution days spanning a full 25 session period. This means the 8/23 day was removed from the count due to time after Fridays session, in essence leaving the index with four days officially on the books heading into Mondays Session. We will be looking for any further selling here to be contained at the 50 day EMA which sits right near $168.

Join us at our Premium Site http://www.ttptrading.com where you get access to both myself and veteran trader Greg Krupinski of GK Trading. Get real-time stock and option trading alerts as well as all the other benefits of membership including nightly analysis of the major indices and reviews of open positions, weekly chart videos every weekend highlighting new potential trade opportunities and more. All for only $69 per month. See you there!

Wednesday Wrap Up Freeview $WMT $AGN $SPY $QQQ $COMPQX $IWM

Here is only a small portion of what premium members receive on a nightly basis.

MARKET RECAP- Some more red numbers for the indices today. Tech stocks and recent momentum plays endured the brunt of the selling with the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 losing over 1% each registering back to back distribution days in the process. Traders seemed to hide in the industrials as the Dow was the only index to finish in the green, although barely. Each of the indices we track posted interesting days in their own respect so let’s get right to it tonight and take a look.

SPY- The S&P 500 ETF posted a distribution day of its own, but it was not as ominous as the Nasdaq’s. The percentage loss of 0.27% was not far above the 0.20% level need to technically qualify and the index did finish in the top third of its range for the second straight session showing some resilience from the bulls. We are still in a comfortable zone in regards to distribution days with only three on the books, but it may be a good time to remind you that a sharp decline in the indices doesn’t necessarily have to announce itself with six or seven previous distribution days.

NASDAQ- The Composite printed a more ominous looking day losing nearly 1.2% on a big increase in trade. This is the third distribution day in the last four sessions, which is not a good look however, before we jump to any conclusions we must consider whether todays big volume was a sign of round support near the previous breakout area in late August rather than traders abandoning ship. The next couple days may tell us a lot in this regard.

QQQ- The Nasdaq 100 printed an equally dreary day as volume swelled over Tuesdays session marking a second consecutive distribution day. The loss did stop however at the previous breakout area near $183.00. We now have four distribution days for this index over the last 25 sessions.

IWM- The Russell 2000 was much better behaved today as its modest 0.27% decline was met with a noticeable decrease in volume over yesterdays distribution session. In similar fashion to the other indices, the index also bounced at previous breakout support just above $170.

TRADING RECAP- We sat on our hands again today, and honestly as much as I like, want and need to trade, I don’t have an issue with this. As important as it is to learn how and when to trade, it is equally important to be willing not to trade when things are not matching up with your method and not offering what you feel are good risk/reward metrics. This game is hard enough when things line up just right for your trades, let alone taking stabs at mediocre set ups. No, we are not perfect and have, and will in the future, put on trades that we look at despairingly in hindsight, but that is just being human. Our goal is to eliminate as many of those trade situations as possible. There will be more trades and likely they will come in a wave as is often the case, until then we continue to stalk good set ups. As far as todays trading is concerned, we were able to fight off some of the selling in the general markets closing out WMT for gains and our AGN spread trade went in our favor as well. PENN was the only downer suffering another red day. Let’s take a detailed look starting with the profitable closing of our WMT credit spread trade.

WMT- We decide to close out our September 94/90 credit put spread into strength today as the stock drastically outperformed the market gaining 1.32%. We were tempted to hold on a bit longer to squeeze a bit more out of the spread, but once option prices fall to near $0.25 it takes a lot push them down much further without going right up into expiration with the trade, unless the stock makes a substantial advance which is never a guarantee. In trying to get that last $0.20 or so out of the trade you start to incur much more risk compared to what you have to gain. We like to at least get back a minimum of 50% of the premium we sold, and in this case we were able to capture a touch over 60%. We closed out the trade for the portfolio by buying back the spread that we sold initially for $0.75 for $0.29. Many traders will try to pass this off as a 61% gain however, this is not accurate. As we discussed, you must figure your return on the margin risk, or the max loss you could have sustained which was $1300 in this case (the 4 point wide spread times the four contracts, less the initial premium received). So,  we returned 14.15% on our risk in just nine trading days. Perhaps we take another stab at this stock, but for now we pocket our profits and move on.

As I stated in the alert, I only closed out the short leg of the spread keeping the 90 strike long puts open. I bought the short 94 strike back for $0.36, sacrificing the 7 cents currently left on the long puts. This is something you can occasionally do when the buy leg of your option gets down to nickels. This leaves you with a lottery type play in case the stock, or the general market gets hit with large unexpected losses. I closed the entire spread trade for the portfolio for easy record keeping and tracking purposes a the then market price of $0.29.

AGN- After taking a one day rest from its current advance, the stock rebounded today once again finding support at its two month trend line. The stock added $1.13 in todays session and our October 190/200 bull call spread that we paid $3.20 for climbed to $4.29 leaving us up 34% on the trade so far………To get full access to the premium site where you will receive real time stock and option trading alerts, weekend video watchlist, nightly and weekend updates of the indices, as well as open positions go to http://www.ttptrading.com See you there!

 

Options Traders Profit In August $IWM $SKYW $SPY $UNH $NOV $UPS $DWDP $AGN #trading #stocks #options #markets

TTPtrading Premium Members have enjoyed nice options gains over the last month. Winners included puts in IWM for 95%, calls in SKYW for 74%, SPY calls for 17%, calls in UHN for 28%, puts alerted in NOV were good for gains of 32%, calls in UPS for 24%, we also alerted traders to buy calls in DWDP which returned 49% and a current open position in an AGN October 190/200 call spread is up over 38%. During this time only two losing trades were alerted. Members are also enjoying a YTD gain of over 18% on the stock trading portion of the service led by veteran trader Greg Krupinski of GK Trading. Both stock and option alerts are available at one site for one price of only $69 per month. Join today for full access of everything the site offers at http://www.ttptrading.com See you there!

 

$DWDP Returns More Gains For Premium Members #trading #stocks #markets #options

After locking in partial gains of over 48% on DowDupont October $70 calls on Monday, Premium Members padded those gains by cashing in again today on remaining contracts, this time for gains of over 76% as the stock added nearly 1%. Gains were achieved in seven trading sessions. Join today at http://www.ttptrading.com for real-time stock and option trading alerts. You get access to myself as well as veteran trader Greg Krupinski of GK Trading for one low price. See you there!

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