Weekly Market Prep For 7/16 $SPY $IWM $QQQ $COMPQX #trading #stocks #markets

MARKET GAUGE: Confirmed Uptrend

*Weekly Sector Watch highlights several industry groups that have experienced a measurable change in strength or weakness relative to other groups over the last 3-6 week period.

SECTORS EXHIBITING RECENT STRENGTH: Software (Medical), Software (Application) Software (Infrastructure), Internet (Content), Electronics (Misc. Products) Electronics (Wholesale), Electronics (Parts), Medical (Long Term Care), Medical (Managed Care), Medical (Biotech), Medical (Products), Medical (Research Equip/Services) Commercial Services (Healthcare), Leisure (Products), Leisure (Services).

SECTORS EXHIBITING RECENT WEAKNESS:  Energy (Solar), Energy (Coal), Oil/Gas (Refining/Marketing), Oil/Gas (Drilling), Oil/Gas (Machine/Equip), Oil/Gas(Integrated), Oil/Gas (Field Services), Mining (Metals/Ores), Banks (Super Regional), Steel (Producers), Steel (Specialty Alloys), Transportation (Ship), Transportation (Truck), Financial (Investment Banks/Brokers), Electronic (Semiconductor Fabless).

OVERVIEW: Despite the headline news, the major indices have been able to gain over 3% the last two weeks. Although still in an uptrend since a confirmed rally back in April, the S&P 500 continues to lag behind tech and small caps and has now approached resistance near the key $280 level. While this area of the market has supplied some tough sledding amidst a sideways chop for most of the year, there have been many areas of strength for traders to focus on. While we must monitor the major indices for signs of distribution that may foreshadow corrections, we must always defer to market leaders and the individual stocks in our portfolio as the true barometer for our trading. In recent weeks we have noted to our clients the series of distribution days that had been taking place within the indices, and despite this, there have been many areas of strength traders could have turned to for returns on the long side. As always, it pays to be flexible and opened minded in our trading so that we can quickly switch gears if necessary. With that, let’s take our weekly look at the major indices we cover here paying particular attention to our Russell 2000 summary at the end of the write up.

SPY- The ETF that we use here to track the S&P 500 turned in a solid week despite a nasty looking distribution day on Wednesday, and after a rough June that saw a series of distribution days hit the index, the selling has dried up a bit here so far in July. However, the recent push has put the index right up against six month resistance near the $280 level, or 2800 on the index itself. The ETF that we favor here to track the index still shows six days of distribution over the last 25 sessions, but we will lose the 6/13 day off the count mid-week next week due to time. Additionally, if we can rally 1%,or better next week, we can knock a few more days off the count due to a 5% advance from those distribution day lows, so things could clear up nicely for the index if it can push through resistance.

NASDAQ- After finding support in late June at trend and moving average, the index has now pushed to new highs. However in doing so, it print a doji candle on Friday. These candles represent a stalemate between supply and demand and suggest that a current uptrend or downtrend may be ready to stall, or reverse. We need only to look back to March of this year (highlighted and circled on the chart) to see an example of this. Now before we get crazy, this does not mean I am calling for a top here. I will go back to what I stated in the open today, that as traders we need to be mindful of what is happening right in front of us. No technical analysis is fool proof, and even if signals such as these candles bear out the suggested outcome, it may be of only temporary influence. So, take your trading one day at a time and continue to be mindful of what is in front of you. In this case it may mean not chasing a trade early Monday, until we see how this technical pattern gets resolved, and if this saves you from a potential quick loss on a trade, you were served quite well by noting the pattern. From a distribution perspective, we did lose the 6/27 day off the count due to the advance from that days intra day low, so like the SPY, we are looking slightly better in this regard.

QQQ- The Nasdaq 100 shows the same pattern as the Composite. Again, perhaps it means nothing, or is of temporary influence, but we must make note of it and not ignore its existence. The index sports six distribution days in the current count but has been much better behaved since late June. Look for any pullback to find possible support at the top of prior resistance near $175, the 50 day EMA, or the current three month uptrend.

IWM- The small cap Russell 2000, which had been leading the markets advance, slowed a bit this week as the index suffered back to back distribution days, and now sports seven in the current 25 session count. We are going to take a look at both the daily and weekly charts today to gain a bit more perspective of the current state of the index. Below our daily view clearly shows a change in character from a calm May accumulation standpoint to a cluster of very heavy selling days in June, along with the back to back days more recently here in early July. The second chart, a weekly view, shows two distinct distribution weeks out of the last three. We also note the downturn in Relative Strength. Perhaps a rotation out of the small cap arena into the some of the lagging larger caps names is in progress, or perhaps this is an early sign of something more serious brewing under the surface. Again, we don’t predict here, we just prepare based on the facts in front of us.

For more in depth coverage of the markets, along with real-time stock and option trading alerts, join myself as well as veteran trader Greg Krupinski of GK Trading at http://www.ttptrading.com where you get access to all our real-time trading alerts and trading material for only $69 per month. See you there!

 

 

Big Resistance Ahead For The S&P 500 $SPY #markets #stocks #trading

OVERVIEW: The crazy 2018 market continued today as the indices turned around yesterdays losses and put trade war concerns on the back burner, at least until tomorrow. The Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 easily led the charge with gains of around 1.5% which were good enough to post all-time highs. The Russell 2000, which caused us some slight concern over the prior two sessions, did advance as well, but lagged behind its peers with a gain of 0.45%. Although we have some concerns with the unevenness of the markets this year, we have to respect the trend and focus on what is working. As always, it pays to shut off the noise and focus on your methodology, pay attention to what is going on within the indices, and stay disciplined taking good swing gains when offered and honoring your stops. Let’s take a look at some index charts where the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 each lost a distribution day due to time. This, along with news highs today, help improve the near term outlook.

SPY- The S&P 500  gapped ahead this morning posting a gain of just under 1%, and has once again approached resistance near the $280 level where several other attempts this year have been turned back on approach. A slew of bank earnings starting tomorrow may play a big part in whether the index can break through.

Join Us at TTP Trading #markets #trading #stocks $SPY $IWM $QQQ

First of all, thank you for visiting the site.  As you may know, I’m a contributor for the member-based site TTP Trading  along with CJ Agresta. Members receive nightly updates tracking all alerted trades. In addition,  I provide a quarterly performance summary for everyone.  Why? Because I think it’s important to be transparent with ALL trades and not just point out the winners on social media.  There have been plenty of winners but trust me, there are some losers in there as well.  In the attached, you will see all open trades I currently have as well as all activity since the start of the service.

Overall, the stock trades are up a little over 13% on the year.  A solid start easily outpacing the indexes but my goal is not to beat the indexes.  Obviously, if the market is acting well, I want to keep up and better yet, outperform.  However, if the market is down 20% and I’m down 10%, that is not a victory.  I want to make money regardless of what the indexes are doing.  Relative outperformance is great but nowhere near as important as having a positive bottom line and being able to compound your money.

Overall, I’m moderately pleased with the first half of the year.  I can make no promises of performance going forward but can promise that I will continue to evolve, improve, and provide members with the best trade ideas and trade education I can.

I believe trading is a journey and requires continual development and evolution.  I find it similar to the game of golf.  There’s always something in your game that can be improved no matter how much success you have had and once you think you have it all figured out you will be humbled quickly.  So I’ll keep working….

Feel free to reach out if you have any questions regarding the service.  Thanks for your time and I hope you have a great week.  See the link below for all trading activity:

GK Trading – TTP Portfolio Tracking

Some Keys Area Violated $SPY $COMPQX $QQQ $IWM #trading #stocks #markets

In our Weekly Market Prep over the weekend we told our clients some caution was warranted as distribution days were mounting of late in the indices. As a result we tightened some stops which locked in some profits and resulted in some timely raising of cash. We felt yesterdays rally was uninspiring and today some key areas in some of the indices were violated. In particular the Nasdaq Composite closed below the 7500 level and its 50 day exponential moving average picking up another fresh distribution day. We will see if indices can remount support levels by the weeks end. The Russell 2000 was also hit hard and has now marked four distribution days in the last five sessions. For a complete review of all the indices on a regular basis, watchlist, real-time stock and option trading alerts and more, join veteran trader Greg Krupinski along with myself at http://www.ttptrading.com

COMP

-CJ

 

 

 

Uninspiring Day for the Indices $SPY $QQQ #trading #stocks #markets

The indices opened higher, but faded late and the SPY ETF was turned back right at its 50 day EMA. The Nasdaq 100 printed a similar looking indecisive candle, but held above its 50 day EMA where it found support in Mondays session, as a well as previous price support near $170. Volume fell from Mondays levels as the indices posted inside days. Tuesdays bounce lacked some conviction, and with all major indices finishing well off their best levels, it was apparent there were plenty off traders willing to take more money off the table during todays advance. With distribution heavy as of late, we will be watching throughout the week to see if buyers get more aggressive near key support levels.

SPY

QQQ

Join us at our premium site http://www.ttptrading.com See you there!

-CJ

TTP Market Gauge Moves to Uptrend Under Pressure $SPY #trading #stocks #markets

The SPY ETF gapped below its most recent area of support and continued downward today piercing its 50 day exponential moving average and closing below that key level. The ETF has now posted four days of institutional selling in just the last nine sessions. The index was able to rally enough late in the day to close above the $270 level, an area of resistance the ETF overcame back in early May. Distribution days have mounted recently, now totaling six over the last 20 sessions, and there has been enough damage done under the surface to turn our Market Gauge from Confirmed Uptrend to Uptrend Under Pressure. Caution is warranted.

SPY

-CJ

Small Cap Shakeout or Something More??? $IWM #trading #stocks #markets

The Russell 2000 ETF posted its third straight day of heavy distribution accompanied by the highest volume day since March 1st. Is this just a shakeout within a longer term bull trend, or the start of a more meaningful correction? We will be watching the participation levels on any ensuing rallies, while keeping a close eye on the current market leaders for some clues as to where we may be heading. The index marked its sixth distribution day in the last 18 sessions setting off a noteworthy caution flag for us.

IWM

-CJ